COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES Department of Mathematics and Statistics

Seminars

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Applied Math Seminar: Non-uniform decay of predictability in stochastic oscillatory models

2008-01-23

3:10 pm, Neill Hall 3W

Sergey Lapin

ABSTRACT: We examine the dynamical mechanisms that lead to the loss of predictability in low dimensional stochastic models that exhibit three main types of oscillatory behavior: damped, self-sustained, and heteroclinic. We show that the information that an initial ensemble provides about the state of the system decays non-uniformly in time. Long intervals during which the forecast provided by the ensemble does not loose any of its power are typical in all three cases. Moreover, the information that the forecast provides about the individual variables in the model may increase, despite the fact that information about the entire system always decreases